Corona-Virus and US real estate what to belive?

The lowest mortgage rates on record are colliding with the prospect of an economic downturn prompted by the coronavirus outbreak, setting the stage for an unpredictable spring selling season in the housing market.

Early indications suggest that rock-bottom borrowing costs may not be enough to lure many home buyers amid the current uncertainty. Economists are tamping down earlier expectations that cheap rates and a strong job market would boost the housing market in 2020 following years of sluggish growth.

As the expanding coronavirus outbreak slows economic activity, roiling markets around the world, there’s a 60% chance of the U.S. economy going into a recession this year, said Mark Zandi, a chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. That economic disruption would batter the housing market despite record-low mortgage rates.

“Housing is being buffeted by two gale forces moving in opposite directions,” Zandi said, referring to low rates and virus-fueled economic turmoil. “The question is, what’s the end result of all that? In all likelihood, the recession will trump the lower rates.”

The virus arrived just in time for the housing market’s key season, which was shaping up to be one of the strongest in years. An unusually warm winter brought buyers out early to take advantage of the low rates and they’ve had to battle for listings that are more scarce than ever

When purchase application data adjusting to population hit an all-time low in 2014, we still have over 5,400,000 total home sales and new and existing homes. When rates were as high as 4.75%-5% we didn’t see a collapse in homes sales.

In fact, existing home sales only lost 170,000 in sales year over year. Today, we are in a much better place than in 2014 in terms of demographic demand and more people working. Rates, even at 4%, are still relatively low and purchase application data is at cycle highs with seven straight weeks of double-digit growth. 

However, if people are in fear, you have no idea how the public will act like. None of us foresaw that the hoarding of toilet paper was going to be a story in 2020. Even with low rates, we simply don’t know the scale of what home buyers or sellers will think with this historic horrific event in the short term.

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U.S. home price increases should soften this year, but central Ohio homebuyers might not see much relief, according to one of the nation's best-known housing economists.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, delivered his largely rosy forecast to the Ohio Bankers League on Wednesday.

Strong job growth, pent-up demand, low mortgage rates and new household formation will keep the housing market strong in 2020, Yun said.

Still, he said he expected home prices to rise only 3.6% this year, on par with historic increases but less than half the 7.8% bump in 2019.

Home shoppers in Columbus, however, might not see much moderation in prices: The area is one of 10 metro areas projected to outperform the national housing market over the next three to five years, Yun noted.

Columbus was the only Midwestern city to make the list, largely because of its population and job growth and its relative affordability, Yun said after the presentation.

"Columbus homes may seem expensive for people living here, but it's very affordable compared to other markets," he said.

The median sales price of a central Ohio home was $209,900 last year, 7.6% above 2018 and the fourth straight year prices have risen at least 6%.

Despite concerns that homes are increasingly unaffordable in central Ohio, the opposite is true: There are so many qualified buyers that they compete for homes, pushing up prices and pushing down inventory.

At the end of 2019, 3,886 central Ohio homes were on the market, half the number of listings just four years earlier.

The shortage of homes on the market is one of the reasons housing isn't booming more, said Yun, who estimated that the U.S. has a shortage of 5 million to 6 million new homes.

"That is why we have an inventory shortage," he said. "We need to build more homes."

Yun said he thought the U.S. economy could grow 3% this year, but forecast a more modest 1.6% growth, in part because of some concerns: the threat of a trade war; the growing federal deficit; and growing consumer debt including student loan debt.

"There's very little chance, close to a zero chance, of recession this year," he said.

jweiker@dispatch.com

@JimWeiker

Columbus Houseing and Real Estate forcast

On the whole, the nation’s housing prices continued to rise throughout this year and are expected to continue to do so into the foreseeable future.

But, according to the National Association of Realtors, there are a handful of markets that are expected to rise above the rest over the next half-decade or so in terms of performance.

NAR’s economists analyzed the nation’s various markets, comparing various factors and determined which 10 housing markets will be the nation’s hottest over the next three to five years.

To determine the top 10 housing markets that will be the hottest, NAR considered domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth relative to the national average, population age structure, attractiveness for retirees, and home price appreciation, along with other variables.

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, the top 10 markets are expected to outperform the rest of the nation in a number of those areas.

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” Yun said. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

Without further adieu, here are the 10 markets that NAR expects to the hottest in the nation in the next three to five years. In alphabetical order, the markets are:

• Charleston, South Carolina
• Charlotte, North Carolina
• Colorado Springs, Colorado
• Columbus, Ohio
• Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
• Fort Collins, Colorado
• Las Vegas, Nevada
• Ogden, Utah
• Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida

According to NAR, strong job growth is helping to drive up home prices in these markets, with payroll employment rising approximately 2.5% annually in the last three years, higher than the national rate of 1.6%.

Ogden, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Raleigh, all had job growth of nearly 3% in the last three years.

Beyond that, these markets are attracting more new residents than others. More specifically, people are moving to these markets at higher rates than the average of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas.

Staging the Livingroom

1. Paint the right way.

It's the last thing on many seller's minds when selling their house, but it's often the thing that helps the space the most. Painting the rooms in the house opens up the space and provides a nice backdrop to the elements of the room.

Avoid bold or dark colors that will make the place feel smaller rather than more open and airy. If you must do a bold color, try an accent wall which can help draw attention to your focal point without making the roof feel too small for potential buyers.

While you certainly don't have to paint the house hospital white, neutral paint colors such as a soft beige, light gray, or tan work best for all spaces.

If you have dark or outdated wood on your mantelpiece or trim, consider painting that a contrasting white to open the space up even more.

2. Make the Space Feel Welcoming

Real estate agents and home stagers agree: clutter has got to go when prepping a home for sale. Clutter makes the space feel like it's not large enough to house everything it needs to, so it's spilling on coffee tables and the sofa and chairs instead.

One of the best things you can do to sell your house is to declutter. While this may seem overwhelming, remember that it's all just part of the moving phase anyway—you're just doing it a bit early.

Cut back on anything that doesn't add to the space. This includes old mail and magazines, trinkets and miscellaneous items that don't really belong anywhere.

Take a look around the room as if you were a buyer or ask a friend or neighbor to come in and take a look around. We get used to our own clutter, so it helps to take a look at it through new eyes.

3. Choose the right furniture.

One of the best things we can do for living room designs everywhere is buy furniture that compliments the space rather than takes away. It seems as though many people try to cram in as much furniture into the living room as possible. While a sectional and bulky end table may be functional, they can dwarf a small space fast.

Rather than remove all of the furniture from the room completely (this can leave the buyer without a point of reference for the size of the room), create a conversation area with a small sofa, a few chairs, and a coffee table. Center the conversation area around the focal point, whether that's the fireplace, windows, or a piece of art.

One last note about furniture: Wooden tables and chairs look wonderful, but can really weigh down a space. Rather than bulky wood furniture, try those with elements of metal, glass, or wicker which adds an air of lightness.

Central Ohio and Columbus Housing Market September 2019

Homes for sale decreasing again

Last year, August marked the 92nd consecutive month of year over year declines in inventory. After seven months of increased supply, central Ohio now has five months of year over year inventory decreases under its belt again this year.

There were only 3,690 central Ohio homes and condos added to the market during the month of August which was 4.6 percent fewer than July and 3.4 percent behind the same month a year ago.

The added inventory brought the total number of homes and condos for sale in central Ohio up to 5,187 which was up 3.6 percent over the previous month, but down 4.5 percent from August 2018.

Given the low unemployment, wage growth and low interest rates, most economists today don’t foresee a recession in the near future. However, the housing market along with the economy is cyclical and a market correction is inevitable at some point.

“The shortage of homes for sale actually works in favor of the housing market,” said John Myers, 2019 President of Columbus REALTORS®. “Lower housing supply up against strong buyer demand as well as record home equity would cushion the effects of any recessionary activity we might see.”

There were 3,230 central Ohio homes and condos sold during the month of August which was down 0.6 percent compared to the same month last year and 3.1 percent lower than July 2019.

The average price of a home sold in central Ohio year to date (January through August) climbed to $243,558, an increase of 6.3 percent over August 2018. The median price of a home sold during the first eight months of the year was $211,000, up 8.2 percent from the previous year.

There were 3,334 central Ohio homes and condos sold during the month of July which was a 3.3 percent bump from June and almost four percent higher than a year ago.

Of those sales, about 2,800 were single-family homes and just over 500 were condominiums according to the Columbus REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service.

“The new condo guidelines released by HUD last week could help would-be buyers become eligible for an FHA-backed mortgage,” said John Myers, 2019 President of Columbus REALTORS®. “Condos are often the most affordable, attractive option for first time home buyers.”

“These new rules have the potential to transform our housing market and regional economy, easing affordability constraints, maximizing first-time homebuyer assistance programs and putting homeownership in reach for countless families that would have continued to be denied this critical wealth-building opportunity.”

There were 3,868 central Ohio homes and condos put on the market during the month of July which is down slightly from last month and last year.

Even with the lackluster number of new listings, the total inventory of homes for sale last month climbed to 5,009, the highest this year, but still 3.4 percent behind 2018.

During the month of July, the median sales price of a home was $220,000, an increase of 7.3 percent over July 2018. The average sales price in July was $251,936, up 5.6 percent from a year ago.

Year to date (January through July), the median sale price ($210,900) is up 8.2 percent and the average sales price ($242,899) is up 6.2 percent and the from the same period one year ago.

“Even though homes are selling for higher prices due to the lack of inventory and strong demand, sellers need to be realistic when pricing their home,” added Myers. “Homes priced too high over their competition will usually sit on the market longer which can be a deterrent to would-be buyers.”

“That’s why it’s critical that sellers consult with a REALTOR® when marketing their home.”

 

Franklin County Board of Commissioners issued the following update, "On Tuesday, the Franklin County Board of Commissioners unanimously approved a plan to invest approximately $65 million over the next ten years in affordable housing in central Ohio to create more than 2,000 new affordable housing units. The initial plan was created earlier this year at the commissioners’ request by the County Economic Development and Planning department as part of that agency’s new five-year strategic plan, and the vote comes after three public hearings on the matter. Funding for the initiative will be through the real estate conveyance fee, which the commissioners voted to increase by one dollar for every $1,000 in sale amounts.

The real estate conveyance fee is paid by people who are selling a property and includes a state-mandated amount of one dollar per $1,000 in the sales price. Franklin County charges an additional dollar, and that money already goes to affordable housing efforts.

Columbus REALTORS® remained neutral on the increase. President John Myers testified at a public hearing on Aug 13 saying, “Columbus REALTORS® is grateful to have been included in the conversations from the beginning. Although we don’t have a formal position on the conveyance fee increase, our membership fully recognizes we must be part of the housing affordability solution. Columbus REALTORS® Foundation recently made a $300,000 commitment to the South Side Renaissance which supported the rehabilitation of 45 single-family affordable homes along with another $40,000 donated this year alone to local non-profit housing organizations as a small part of our commitment to housing affordability.

Continuing to burden property owners with additional fees and costs, at all levels of governments, is something our organization and members takes seriously. We recognize raising fees is never easy and rarely popular, however nearly 14 years ago Columbus REALTORS® supported the additional dollar increase, as it went to support housing affordability, specifically the Affordable Housing Trust and Community Shelter Board. Any increase in the conveyance fee, on property owners, should again only be allocated to supporting housing affordability.

I want to reiterate our commitment to housing affordability, not only thru our continued community financial commitment but also by being a good community partner.”

The fee will affect all property transfers starting October 7, 2019.